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Here again, an examination of the long-term data quickly shows this to be incorrect.The last decade of temperature and stock market data are not representative of longer-term trends.Nordhaus counters that taking steps to slow climate change won’t result in economic catastrophe, concluding, “The claim that cap-and-trade legislation or carbon taxes would be ruinous to our society does not stand up to serious economic analysis.” – Yale Global NEW HAVEN: A January 27 opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal by a group of 16 scientists, “No Need to Panic About Global Warming,” contained many of the standard criticisms of climate skeptics in a succinct statement.
The finding that global temperatures are rising over the last century-plus is among the most robust findings of climate science and statistics. The standard approach is to perform an experiment in which (case 1) modelers put the changes in CO2 concentrations and other climate influences in a climate model and estimate the resulting temperature path, and then (case 2) modelers calculate what would happen in the counterfactual situation where the only changes were due to natural sources, for example, the sun and volcanoes.
Their second argument is that warming is less than predicted by the models: “The lack of warming for more than a decade – indeed, the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projections – suggests that computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause.” What’s the evidence on performance of climate models? They then compare the actual temperature increases of the model predictions for all sources (case 1) with the predictions for natural sources alone (case 2).
One of the reasons that drawing conclusions on temperature trends is tricky is that the historical temperature series is highly volatile.
The presence of short-term volatility requires looking at long-term trends. Suppose an analyst says that because real stock prices have declined over the last decade, which is true, it follows that there’s no upward trend.
Most people will benefit from stepping back and looking at the record of actual temperature measurements.
The figure below shows data from 1880 to 2011 on global mean temperature averaged from three sources.Several modelers ran both cases 1 and 2 described above – one including human-induced changes and one with only natural sources.This experiment showed that the projections of climate models are consistent with recorded temperature trends over recent decades only if human impacts are included.Global warming can do more than just melt polar ice and change weather patterns throughout the world.It can change our maps, displace people from tropical islands and cities, and cause famine.We don’t need complicated statistical analysis to see that temperatures are rising.Furthermore, they’re higher during the last decade than they were in earlier decades.At a time when we need to clarify public confusion about the science and economics of climate change, the 16 scientists have muddied the waters. Their first claim is that the planet is not warming.More precisely, “Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now." It’s easy to get lost in the tiniest details here.There is no debate within the scientific community.The scientific evidence of the global warming is clear.